Estimating the Burden of Dengue in the Philippines Using a Dynamic Transmission Model

  • Kent Jason G. Cheng
  • Hilton Y. Lam
  • Adovich S. Rivera
  • Bernadette A. Tumanan-Mendoza
  • Marissa M. Alejandria
  • David BC. Wu
Keywords: dengue, dengue cost estimation, dynamic transmission model, epidemiology, Philippines


Objective. This study aimed to describe dengue burden in the Philippines. Specifically, health and economic costs of the disease were estimated.

Methods. A published serotype-specific and age-stratified dengue dynamic transmission model was populated with Philippine-specific dengue epidemiology and cost data. Data were gathered from literature and record reviews. Dengue experts were consulted to validate the model parameters. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the uncertainty of input parameters on model outcomes.

Results. By 2016 to 2020, it is estimated that annually, average hospitalized cases will amount to 401,191 and ambulatory cases will amount to 239,497; resulting to USD 139 million (PhP 5.9 billion) and USD 19 million (PhP 827 million) worth of aggregate costs shouldered by the public payer for hospitalized and ambulatory cases, respectively. Average annual productivity losses may amount to USD 19 million (PhP 821 million) and DALY lost is expected to be 50,622.

Conclusion. The cost of dengue is high especially since the Philippines is an endemic country. Thus, there is a need to optimize government interventions such as vector control and vaccination that aim to prevent dengue infections.


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