Traffic and Injury Incidents Involving Buses in Metro Manila, 2005-2020

Background. Despite being a densely inhabited region responsible for the Philippines’s major economic activities, Metro Manila’s transport system is ill-equipped to provide for the needs of its populace. Herein, buses are preferentially considered as one of the main modes for commuting due to the multitude of routes available, convenience, and perceived safety. Analysis of the factors surrounding these crashes is necessary to prevent these incidents from occurring and to mitigate further risks. 

Objective. The authors aimed to determine the distribution, socio-demographic aspects, and factors affecting patient outcome for victims of Metro Manila bus crashes based on the Metro Manila Accident Recording and Analysis System (MMARAS) databases for the years 2005-2020.

Methods. A decade-long exploratory analysis was done on MMARAS data from 2005-2020. Logistic regression was used to analyze relationships between road user mortality and injury and crash-related factors. Nagelkerke R2 was used to assess model fit, and Odds Ratios were derived from the model coefficients. These data yield whether the crash variable has an increased or decreased likelihood of affecting patient outcome.

Results. There are four factors which chiefly determine whether a road user is injured or killed in a bus crash. These are collision type, driver’s risky behavior, vehicle type, and junction type. Across road user types, risky behaviors were found to greatly aggravate the severity of a bus crash. 

Conclusion. The circumstances surrounding bus crashes were identified within this study. It was found that these differentially affect patient outcomes depending on their road user type and sex. This information may then be used to generate strategies to prevent and ease the severity of future bus crashes.